Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

What's up, Denver? Adam Gillespie here, your straight-shooting, no-BS realtor. With the 2024 Presidential election around the corner, I know many of you are wondering how it might affect the housing market. Let’s dive in and break it down.

Home Sales

Alright, let’s talk home sales. During November of election years, there's usually a slight dip in sales. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, nails it:

"Usually, home sales are unchanged compared to a non-election year with the exception being November. In an election year, November is slower than normal."

People get a bit jittery making big decisions when there's so much uncertainty in the air. But hey, don't stress. This slowdown is just temporary. Historically, sales bounce back in December and keep rising the following year. Check out this data from HUD and NAR – after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales went up the next year:

Home Prices

Now, let’s hit home prices. Do they tank during election years? Not really. Ryan Lundquist, a solid housing analyst, puts it straight:

"An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market."

Home prices are tough and keep rising year-over-year, election or not. The latest NAR data shows that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices went up the next year:

The only dip was during the housing crash, and let’s be real, that was a mess. Today’s market is way different.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are crucial since they hit your monthly payments. Looking back at the last 11 Presidential election years, Freddie Mac’s data shows rates dropped from July to November in 8 of them:

Most forecasts are saying rates will ease a bit for the rest of the year. If they’re on point, we’ll follow the trend of dropping rates before elections. Good news if you’re buying soon – lower rates mean lower payments.

What This Means for You

So, what's the takeaway? While elections do stir the pot a bit, their impact on the housing market is usually minor and short-lived. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, sums it up:

"Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years."

For most buyers and sellers, elections won’t make or break your plans.

Bottom Line

It's normal to feel a bit edgy during election years, but history shows the housing market is tough and bounces back. If you’ve got questions, hit me up. I’m here to guide you through the market, election year or not.